Chapter 6—Production: The Rate of Interest and
Its Determination (continued)

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Chapter
6—Production: The Rate of Interest and Its Determination
(continued)
4.
The Time Market and the Production Structure
The time market, like other markets, consists of component individuals
whose schedules are aggregated to form the market supply and demand
schedules. The intricacy of the time market (and of the money market as
well) consists in the fact that it is also divided and subdivided into
various distinguishable submarkets. These are aggregable into
a total market, but the subsidiary components are interesting
and highly significant in their own right and deserve further analysis.
They themselves, of course, are composed of individual supply and
demand schedules.
As we have indicated above, we may divide the present-future market
into two main subdivisions: the production structure
and the consumer loan market. Let us turn first to
the production structure. This may be done most clearly by considering
once again a typical production-structure diagram. This diagram is the
one in Figure 41, with one critical difference. Previously the
diagram represented a typical production structure for any
particular consumers’ good. Now the same
diagram represents the aggregate production structure for all
goods. Money moves from consumers’ goods back
through the various stages of production, while goods flow from the
higher through the lower stages of production, finally to be sold as
consumers’ goods. The pattern of production is not changed by
the fact that both specific and nonspecific factors exist. Since the
production structure is aggregated, the degree of specificity
for a particular product is irrelevant in
a discussion of the time market.
There is no problem in the fact that different production
processes for different goods take unequal lengths of time.
This is not a difficulty because the flow from one stage to another can
be aggregated for any number of processes.
There are, however, two more serious problems that seem to be involved
in aggregating the production structure for the entire
economy. One is the fact that in various processes there will not
necessarily be an exchange of capital goods for money at each stage.
One firm may “vertically integrate” within itself
one or more stages and thereby advance present goods for a greater
period of time. We shall see below, however, that this presents no
difficulty at all, just as it presented no difficulty in the case of
particular processes.
A second difficulty is the purchase and use of durable
capital goods. We have been assuming, and are continuing to assume,
that no capital goods or land are bought—that
they are only hired, i.e.,
“rented” from their owners. The purchase of durable
goods presents complications, but again, as we shall see, this will
lead to no essential change whatever in our analysis.
The production-structure diagram in Figure 45 omits the
numbers that indicated the size of payments between the
various sectors and substitutes instead D’s
and S’s to indicate the points where
present-future transactions (“time transactions”)
take place and what groups are engaging in these various transactions. D’s
indicate demanders of present goods, and S’s
are suppliers of present goods, for future goods.

Let us begin at the bottom—the expenditure of consumers on
consumers’ goods. The movement of money is indicated by
arrows, and money moves from consumers to the sellers of
consumers’ goods. This is not a
time transaction, because it is an exchange of present goods
(money) for present goods (consumers’
goods).
These producers of consumers’ goods are necessarily
capitalists who have invested in the services of factors to produce
these goods and who then sell their products. Their investment in
factors consisted of purchases of the services of land factors
and labor factors (the original factors) and first-order
capital goods (the produced factors). In both these two large
categories of transactions (exchanges that are made a stage
earlier than the final sale of consumers’ goods), present
goods are exchanging for future goods. In both cases, the capitalists
are supplying present money in exchange for factor
services whose yield will materialize in the future, and which
therefore are future goods.
So the capitalists who are producing consumers’ goods, whom
we might call “first-stage capitalists,” engage in
time transactions in making their investments. The components of this
particular subdivision of the time market, then, are:
Supply of Present Goods:
Capitalists1
Supply of Future Goods:
Landowners,
Laborers, Capitalists2
(Demand for Present Goods)
Capitalists1 are the first-stage capitalists who
produce consumers’ goods. They purchase capital
goods from the producer-owners—the second-stage
capitalists, or Capitalists2. The appropriate S’s
and D’s indicate these transactions, and
the arrows pointing upward indicate the direction of money payment.
At the next stage, the Capitalists2 have to
purchase services of factors of production. They supply present goods
and purchase future goods, goods which are even more distantly in the
future than the product that they will produce.
These future goods are
supplied by landowners, laborers, and Capitalists.
To sum up, at the second stage:
Supply of Present Goods:
Capitalists2
Supply of Future
Goods:
Landowners, Laborers, Capitalists3
These
transactions are marked with the appropriate S’s
and D’s, and the arrows pointing upward
indicate the direction of money payment in these transactions.
This pattern is continued until the very last stage. At this final
stage, which is here the sixth, the sixth-stage capitalists supply
future goods to the fifth-stage capitalists, but also supply present
goods to laborers and landowners in exchange for the extremely distant
future services of the latter. The transactions for the two highest
stages are, then, as follows (with the last stage designated as N
instead of six):
Fifth
Stage:
Supply of Present Goods:
Capitalists5
Supply of Future
Goods: Landowners, Laborers,
CapitalistsN
Nth
Stage:
Supply of Present Goods:
CapitalistsN
Supply of
Future Goods:
Landowners, Laborers
We may now sum up our time market for any production structure
of N stages:

To illustrate clearly the workings of the production structure, let us
hark back to the numerical example given in Figure 41 and summarize the
quantities of present goods supplied and received by the various
components of the time market. We may use the same figures here to
apply to the aggregate production structure,
although the reader may wish to consider the units as multiples of gold
ounces in this case. The fact that different durations of production
processes and different degrees of vertical integration make no
difficulties for aggregation permits us to use the diagram
almost interchangeably for a single production process and for the
economy as a whole. Furthermore, the fact that the ERE interest rate
will be the same for all stages and all goods in the economy especially
permits us to aggregate the comparable stages of all goods. For if the
rate is 5 percent, then we may say that for a certain stage of one
good, payments by capitalists to owners of factors are 50 ounces, and
receipts from sales of products are 52.5 ounces, while we can also
assume that the aggregate payments for the whole economy in the same
period are 5,000 ounces, and receipts 5,250 ounces. The same interest
rate connotes the same rate of return on investments, whether
considered separately or for all goods lumped together.
The following, then, are the supplies and demands for present goods
from Figure 41, the diagram now being treated as an aggregate
for the whole economy:

The
horizontal arrows at each stage of this table depict the
movement of money as supplied from the savers to the recipient
demanders at that stage.
From this tabulation it is easy to derive the net
money income of the various participants: their gross
money income minus their money payments, if we include the entire
period of time for all of their transactions on the time market. The
case of the owners of land and labor is simple: they receive their
money in exchange for the future goods to be yielded by their factors;
this money is their gross and their net money
income from the productive system. The total of net money
income to the owners of land and labor is 83 ounces. This is the sum of
the money incomes to the various owners of land and labor at
each stage of production.
The case of the capitalists is far more complicated. They pay out
present goods in exchange for future goods and then sell the maturing
less distantly future products for money to lower-stage capitalists.
Their net money income is derived by subtracting
their money outgo from their gross income over the period of the
production stage. In our example, the various net incomes of the
capitalists are as follows:

The
total net income of the capitalists producing capital goods (orders 2
through N) is 12 ounces.
What, then, of Capitalists1, who apparently have
not only no net income, but a deficit of 95 ounces? They are recouped,
as we see from the diagram (in Figure 41), not from
the savings of capitalists, but from the expenditure of
consumers, which totals 100 ounces, yielding a net income to
Capitalists1 of five ounces.
It should be emphasized at this point that the general pattern of the
structure of production and of the time market will be the same in the
real world of uncertainty as in the ERE. The difference will be in the
amounts that go to each sector and in the relations among the various
prices. We shall see later what the discrepancies will be; for example,
the rate of return by the capitalists in each sector will not be
uniform in the real market. But the pattern of
payments, the composition of suppliers and demanders, will be the same.
In analyzing the income-expenditure balance sheets of the production
structure, writers on economic problems have seen that we may
consolidate the various incomes and consider only the net incomes. The
temptation has been simply to write off the various intercapitalist
transactions as “duplications.” If that is done
here, then the total net income in the market is: capitalists,
17 ounces (12 ounces for capital-good capitalists and five ounces for
consumers’-good capitalists); land and labor factors, 83
ounces. The grand total net income is then 100 ounces. This is exactly
equal to the total of consumer spending for the period.
Total net income is 100 ounces, and consumption is 100 ounces. There
is, therefore, no new net saving. We shall deal
with savings and their change in detail below. Here the point is that,
in the endless round of the ERE, zero net savings,
as thus defined, would mean that there is just enough gross
saving to keep the structure of productive capital intact, to keep the
production processes rolling, and to keep a constant amount of
consumers’ goods produced per given period.
It is certainly legitimate and often useful to consider net
incomes and net savings, but it is not always illuminating,
and its use has been extremely misleading in present-day economics.
Use of the net
“national” income figures (it is better to deal
with “social income” extending throughout the
market community using the money rather than to limit the scope to
national boundaries) leads one to believe that the really important
element maintaining the production structure is
consumers’ spending. In our ERE example, the various
factors and capitalists receive their net income and plow it back into
consumption, thus maintaining the productive structure and future
standards of living, i.e., the output of consumers’ goods.
The inference from such concepts is clear: capitalists’
savings are necessary to increase and deepen the capital structure, but
even without any savings, consumption expenditure is alone sufficient
to maintain the productive capital structure intact.
This conclusion seems deceptively clear-cut: after all, is not consumer
spending the bulwark and end product of activity? This thesis, however,
is tragically erroneous. There is no simple automatism in
capitalists’ spending, especially when we leave the certain
world of the ERE, and it is in this real world that the conceptual
error plays havoc. For with production divided into stages, it is not
true that consumption spending is sufficient to provide for the
maintenance of the capital structure. When we consider the maintenance
of the capital structure, we must consider all the
decisions to supply present goods on the present-future
market. These decisions are aggregated; they do not
cancel one another out. Total savings in the economy, then, are not
zero, but the aggregation of all the present goods supplied to owners
of future goods during the production process. This is the sum of the
supplies of Capitalists1 through CapitalistsN,
which totals 318 ounces. This is the total gross
savings—the supply of present goods for future goods in
production—and also equals total gross
investment. Investment is the amount of money spent on future-good
factors and necessarily equals savings. Total expenditures on
production are: 100 (Consumption) plus 318 (Investment =
Savings), equals 418 ounces. Total gross income
from production equals the gross income of Capitalists1
(100 ounces) plus the gross income of other capitalists (235 ounces)
plus the gross income of owners of land and labor (83 ounces), which
also equals 418 ounces.
The system depicted in our diagram of the production
structure, then, is of an economy in which 418 gold
ounces are earned in gross income, and 100 ounces
are spent on consumption, while 318 ounces are
saved and invested in a certain order in the production
structure. In this evenly rotating economy, 418 ounces are earned and
then spent, with no net “hoarding” or
“dishoarding,” i.e., no net additions or
subtractions from the cash balance over the period as a whole.
Thus, instead of no savings being needed to maintain capital and the
production structure intact, we see that a very heavy
proportion of savings and investment—in our example
three times the amount spent on consumption—is necessary
simply to keep the production structure intact. The contrast is clear
when we consider who obtains income and who is
empowered to decide whether to consume or to invest. The net-income
theorists implicitly assume that the only important decisions
in regard to consuming vs. saving-investing are made by the
factor-owners out of their net income. Since the net income of
capitalists is admittedly relatively small, this approach
attributes little importance to their role in maintaining capital. We
see, however, that what maintains capital is gross
expenditures and gross investment and not net
investment. The capitalists at each stage of production, therefore,
have a vital role in maintaining capital through their savings and
investment, through heavy savings from gross income.
Concretely, let us take the case of the Capitalists1.
According to the net-income theorists, their role is relatively small,
since their net income is only five ounces. But actually their gross
income is 100 ounces, and it is their decision on how much of
this to save and how much to consume that is decisive. In the
ERE, of course, we simply state that they save and invest 95 ounces.
But when we leave the province of the ERE, we must realize that there
is nothing automatic about this investment. There is no natural law
that they must reinvest this amount. Suppose, for example, that the
Capitalists1 decide to break up the smooth flow
of the ERE by spending all of the 100 ounces for their own
consumption rather than investing the 95 ounces. It is evident
that the entire market-born production structure would be destroyed. No
income at all would accrue to the owners of all the
higher-order capital goods, and all the higher-order capital
processes, all the production processes longer than the very shortest,
would have to be abandoned. We have seen above, and shall see in more
detail below, that civilization advances by virtue of additional
capital, which lengthens production processes. Greater
quantities of goods are made possible only through the
employment of more capital in longer processes. Should capitalists
shift from saving-investment to consumption, all these processes would
be necessarily abandoned, and the economy would revert to
barbarism, with the employment of only the shortest and most
primitive production processes. The standard of living, the
quantity and variety of goods produced, would fall catastrophically to
the primitive level.
What could be the reason for such a precipitate withdrawal of savings
and investment in favor of consumption? The only reason—on
the free market—would be a sudden and massive increase in the
time-preference schedules of the capitalists, so that present
satisfactions become worth very much more in terms of future
satisfactions. Their higher time preferences mean that the
existing rate of interest is not enough to induce them to save and
invest in their previous proportions. They therefore consume a greater
proportion of their gross income and invest less.
Each individual, on the basis of his time-preference schedule, decides
between the amount of his money income to be devoted to saving and the
amount to be devoted to consumption. The aggregate
time-market schedules (determined by time preferences) determine the
aggregate social proportions between (gross) savings and consumption.
It is clear that the higher the time-preference schedules are, the
greater will be the proportion of consumption to savings, while lower
time-preference schedules will lower this proportion. At the same time,
as we have seen, higher time-preference schedules in the
economy lead to higher rates of interest, and lower schedules lead to
lower rates of interest.
From this it becomes clear that the time preferences of the
individuals on the market determine simultaneously and by
themselves both the market equilibrium interest rate and the
proportions between consumption and savings (individual and
aggregate).
Both of the latter are the
obverse side of the same coin. In our example, the increase in
time-preference schedules has caused a decline in savings, absolute and
proportionate, and a rise in the interest rate.
The fallacies of the net product figures have led economists to include
some “grossness” in their product and income
figures. At present the favorite concept is that of the
“gross national product” and its
counterpart, gross national expenditures. These concepts were
adopted because of the obvious errors encountered with the net income
concepts.
Current
“gross” figures, however, are the height of
illogicality, because they are not gross at all, but only partly gross.
They include only gross purchases by capitalists of durable
capital goods and the consumption of their self-owned durable capital,
approximated by depreciation allowances set by the owners. We
shall consider the problems of durable capital more fully below, but
suffice it to say that there is no great difference between durable and
less durable capital. Both are consumed in the course of the production
process, and both must be paid for out of the gross income and gross
savings of lower-order capitalists. In evaluating the payment pattern
of the production structure, then, it is inadmissible to leave the
consumption of nondurable capital goods out of the investment picture.
It is completely illogical to single out durable goods, which are
themselves only discounted embodiments of their nondurable
services and therefore no different from nondurable goods.
The idea that the capital structure is maintained intact
without savings, as it were automatically, is fostered by the
use of the “net” approach. If even zero savings
will suffice to maintain capital, then it seems as if the aggregate
value of capital is a permanent entity that cannot be reduced. This
notion of the permanence of capital has permeated economic theory,
particularly through the writings of J.B. Clark and Frank H.
Knight, and through the influence of the latter has molded current
“neoclassical” economic theory in America.
To maintain this doctrine it is necessary to deny the stage analysis of
production and, indeed, to deny the very influence of time
in production.The all-pervading
influence of time is stressed in the period-of-production concept and
in the determination of the interest rate and of the
investment-consumption ratio by individual time-preference schedules.
The Knight doctrine denies any role to time in production,
asserting that production “now” (in a modern,
complex economy) is timeless and that time preference has no
influence on the interest rate. This doctrine has been aptly called a
“mythology of capital.” Among other
errors, it leads to the belief that there is no economic problem
connected with the replacement and maintenance of capital.
A common fallacy, fostered directly by the net-income
approach, holds that the important category of expenditures in
the production system is consumers’ spending. Many writers
have gone so far as to relate business prosperity directly to
consumers’ spending, and depressions of business to declines
in consumers’ spending. “Business cycle”
considerations will be deferred to later chapters, but it is clear that
there is little or no relationship between prosperity and
consumers’ spending; indeed almost the reverse is true. For
business prosperity, the important consideration is the price
spreads between the various stages—i.e., the rate of interest
return earned. It is this rate of interest that induces capitalists to
save and invest present goods in productive factors. The rate of
interest, as we have been demonstrating, is set by the configurations
of the time preferences of individuals in the society. It is not the
total quantity of money spent on consumption that is relevant
to capitalists’ returns, but the margins,
the spreads, between the product prices and the sum of factor prices at
the various stages—spreads which tend to be proportionately
equal throughout the economy.
There is, in fact, never any need to worry about the
maintenance of consumer spending. There must always
be consumption; as we have seen, after a certain amount of monetary
saving, there is always an irreducible minimum of his monetary assets
that every man will spend on current consumption. The fact of human
action insures such an irreducible minimum. And as long as there is a
monetary economy and money is in use, it will be spent on the purchase
of consumers’ goods. The proportion spent on capital in its
various stages and in toto gives a clue to the important
consideration—the real output of consumers’ goods
in the economy. The total amount of money spent, however, gives no clue
at all. Money and its value will be systematically studied in a later
chapter. It is obvious, however, that the number of units spent could
vary enormously, depending on the quantity of the money commodity in
circulation. One hundred or 1,000 or 10,000 or 100,000 ounces of gold
might be spent on consumption, without signifying anything except that
the quantity of money units available was less or greater. The total
amount of money spent on consumption gives no clue to the quantity of
goods the economy may purchase.
The important consideration, therefore, is time preferences and the
resultant proportion between expenditure on consumers’ and
producers’ goods (investment). The lower the proportion of
the former, the heavier will be the investment in capital
structure, and, after a while, the more abundant the supply of
consumers’ goods and the more productive the
economy. The obverse of the coin is the determining effect of
time preferences on the price spreads that set the rate of interest,
and the income of the capitalist savers-investors in the economy. We
have already seen the effect of a lowering of investment on the first
rank, and below we shall analyze fully the effect on production and
interest of a lowering of time preferences and the effects of various
changes in the quantity of money on time preferences and the production
structure.
Before continuing with an analysis of time preference and the
production structure, however, let us complete our examination
of the components of the time market.
The pure demanders of present goods on the time market are the various
groups of laborers and landowners—the sellers of the services
of original productive factors. Their price on the market, as will be
seen below, will be set equal to the marginal value product
of their units, discounted by the prevailing rate
of interest. The greater the rate of interest, the less will
the price of their service be, or rather, the greater will be the discount
from their marginal value product considered as the matured present
good. Thus, if the marginal value product of a certain labor or land
factor is 10 ounces per unit period, and the rate of interest is 10
percent, its earning price will be approximately nine ounces per year
if the final product is one year away. A higher rate of interest would
lead to a lower price, and a lower rate to a higher price, although the
maximum price is one slightly below the full MVP (marginal value
product), since the interest rate can never disappear.
It seems likely that the demand schedule for present goods by the
original productive factors will be highly inelastic in response to
changes in the interest rate. With the large base amount, the
discounting by various rates of interest will very likely make little
difference to the factor-owner.
Large changes in the
interest rate, which would make an enormous difference to capitalists
and determine huge differences in interest income and the
profitableness of various lengthy productive processes, would
have a negligible effect on the earnings of the owners of the
original productive factors.
On the time market, we are considering all factors in the
aggregate; the interest rate of the time market permeates all
particular aspects of the present-future market, including all
purchases of land and labor services. Therefore, when we are
considering the supply of a certain factor on the market, we are
considering it in general, and not its supply
schedule for a specific use. A group of homogeneous pieces of land may
have three alternative uses: say, for growing wheat, raising sheep, or
serving as the site of a steel factory. Its supply schedule for each of
the three uses will be elastic (relatively flat curve) and will be
determined by the amount it can obtain in the next best
use—i.e., the use in which its discounted MVP is next
highest. In the present analysis, we are not considering the
factor’s supply curve for a particular
industry or use; we are considering its supply curve for all
users in the aggregate, i.e., its supply curve on
the time market in exchange for present goods. We are
therefore considering the behavior of all owners of a
homogeneous factor of land (or of one owner if the land factor is
unique, as it often is). Land is very likely to have no
reservation price, i.e., it will have little
subjective-use-value to the owner. A few landlords may place a
valuation on the possibility of contemplating the virgin
beauty of the unused land; in practice, however, the importance of such
reservation-demand for land is likely to be negligible. It
will, of course, be greater where the owner can use the land to grow
food for himself.
Labor services are also likely to be inelastic with respect to the
interest discount, but probably less so than land, since labor has a
reservation demand, a subjective use-value, even in the aggregate labor
market. This special reservation demand stems from the value of leisure
as a consumers’ good. Higher prices for labor services will
induce more units of labor to enter the market, while lower
prices will increase the relative advantages of leisure. Here again,
however, the difference that will be made by relatively large changes
in the interest rate will not be at all great, so that the aggregate
supply-of-labor curve (or rather curves, one for each homogeneous labor
factor) will tend to be inelastic with regard to the interest rate.
The two categories of independent demanders of present goods for future
goods, then, are the landowners and the laborers.
The suppliers of present goods on the time market are clearly the capitalists,
who save from their possible consumption and invest their savings in
future goods. But the question may be raised: Do not the capitalists
also demand present goods as well as supply them?
It is true that capitalists, after investing in a stage of
production, demand present goods in exchange for their
product. This particular demand is inelastic in relation to interest
changes since these capital goods also can have no subjective use-value
for their producers. This demand, however, is strictly derivative and
dependent. In the first place, the product for which the owner
demands present goods is, of course, a future good, but it is
also one stage less distantly future than the goods
that the owner purchased in order to produce it. In other
words, Capitalists3 will sell their future goods
to Capitalists2, but they had bought future
goods from Capitalists4, as well as from
landowners and laborers. Every capitalist at every stage, then, demands
goods that are more distantly future than the
product that he supplies, and he supplies present goods for
the duration of the production stage until this product is formed. He
is therefore a net supplier of present goods, and a
net demander of future goods. Hence, his activities are
guided by his role as a supplier. The higher the rate of interest that
he will be able to earn, i.e., the higher the price spread, the more he
will tend to invest in production. If he were not essentially
a supplier of present goods, this would not be true.
The relation between his role as a supplier and as a demander of
present goods may be illustrated by the diagram in Figure 46.

This diagram is another way of conveniently representing the structure
of production. On the horizontal axis are represented the various
stages of production, the dots furthest to the left being the
highest stages, and those further to the right being the lower stages.
From left to right, then, the stages of production are lower and
eventually reach the consumers’-good stage. The
vertical axis represents prices, and it could interchangeably
be either the production structure of one particular good or of all the
goods in general. The prices that are represented at each stage are the
cumulative prices of the factors at each stage, excluding
the interest return of the capitalists. At each stage
rightward, then, the level of the dots is higher, the difference
representing the interest return to the capitalists at that
stage. In this diagram, the interest return to capitalists at two
adjacent stages is indicated, and the constant slope indicates that
this return is equal.
Let us now reproduce the above diagram in Figure 47.The original production structure
diagram is marked at points A, B,
and C. Capitalists X purchase
factors at price A and sell their product
at point B, while capitalists Y
buy at B and sell their product at C.
Let us first consider the highest stage here portrayed—that
of capitalists X. They purchase the factors at
point A. Here they supply
present goods to owners of factors. Capitalists X,
of course, would prefer that the prices of the factors be lower; thus,
they would prefer paying A'
rather than A. Their interest spread
cannot be determined until their selling prices are
determined. Their activities as suppliers of present goods in exchange
for interest return, therefore, are not really completed with their
purchase of factors. Obviously, they could not be. The capitalists must
transform the factors into products and sell their products for money
before they obtain their interest return from their supply of present
goods. The suppliers of future goods (landowners and laborers)
complete their transactions immediately, as soon as
they obtain present money. But the capitalists’
transactions are incomplete until they obtain present money
once again. Their demand for present goods is therefore strictly
dependent on their previous supply.

Capitalists X, as we have stated, sell their
products at B to the next lower rank of
capitalists. Naturally, they would prefer a higher selling price for
their product, and the point B' would be
preferred to B. If we looked only at this sale, we
might be tempted to state that, as demanders of present goods,
capitalists X prefer a higher price, and therefore
a lower discount for their product, i.e., a lower interest rate. This,
however, would be a superficial point of view, for we must look at both
of their exchanges, which are necessarily considered together if we
consider their complete transaction. They prefer a
lower buying point and a higher selling point, i.e., a more
steeply sloped line, or a higher rate of discount.
In other words, the capitalists prefer a higher rate of
interest and therefore always act as suppliers
of present goods. Of course, the result of this particular change (to a
price spread of A' B')
is that the next lower rung of capitalists, capitalists Y,
suffer a narrowing of their price spread, along the line B'C.
It is, of course, perfectly agreeable to capitalists X
if capitalists Y suffer a lowering of
their interest return, so long as the return of the former improves.
Each capitalist is interested in improving his own interest return and
not necessarily the rate of interest in general. However, as we have
seen, there cannot for long be any differences in interest
return between one stage and another or between one production process
and another. If the A' B'
C situation were established, capitalists would pour
out of the Y stage and into the X
stage, the increased demand would bid up the price above A',
the sales at B' would
be increased and the demand lowered, and the supply at C
lowered, until finally the interest returns were equalized.
There is always a tendency for such equalization, and this equalization
is actually completed in the ERE.
The fact that consumers may
physically consume all or part of these goods at a later date does not
affect this conclusion, because any further consumption takes place
outside the money nexus, and it is the latter that we are analyzing.
No important complication arises
from the greater degree of futurity of the higher-order factors. As we
have indicated above, a more distantly future good
will simply be discounted by the market by a greater amount, though at
the same rate per annum. The interest rate, i.e.,
the discount rate of future goods per unit of time, remains the same
regardless of the degree of futurity of the good. This fact serves to
resolve one problem mentioned above—vertical integration by
firms over one or more stages. If the equilibrium rate of interest is 5
percent per year, then a one-stage producer will earn 5
percent on his investment, while a producer who advances present goods
over three stages—for three years—will earn 15
percent, i.e., 5 percent per annum.
Very recently, greater realism has
been introduced into social accounting by considering intercapitalist
“money flows.”
Problems of hoarding and
dishoarding from the cash balance will be treated in chapter 11 on
money and are prescinded from the present analysis.
Cf. Knut Wicksell, Lectures
on Political Economy (London: Routledge and Kegan Paul,
1934), I, 189–91.
For more on the relations between
the interest rate, i.e., the price spreads or margins, and the
proportions invested and consumed, see below.
On gross and net product, see
Milton Gilbert and George Jaszi, “National Product
and Income Statistics as an Aid in Economic Problems” in W.
Fellner and B.F. Haley, eds., Readings in the Theory of
Income Distribution (Philadelphia: Blakiston, 1946), pp.
44–57; and Simon Kuznets, National Income,
A Summary of Findings (New York: National Bureau of Economic
Research, 1946), pp. 111–21, and especially p. 120.
If permanence is attributed to the
mythical entity, the aggregate value of capital, it becomes an
independent factor of production, along with labor, and earns interest.
The fallacy of the
“net” approach to capital is at least as old as
Adam Smith and continues down to the present. See
Hayek, Prices and Production, pp.
37–49. This book is an excellent contribution to the analysis
of the production structure, gross savings and consumption, and in
application to the business cycle, based on the production and business
cycle theories of Böhm-Bawerk and Mises respectively. Also
see Hayek, “The Mythology of Capital” in
W. Fellner and B.F. Haley, eds., Readings in the Theory of
Income Distribution (Philadelphia: Blakiston, 1946), pp.
355–83; idem, Profits,
Interest, and Investment, passim.
For a critique of the analogous
views of J.B. Clark, see Frank A. Fetter,
“Recent Discussions of the Capital Concept,” Quarterly
Journal of Economics, November, 1900, pp.
1–14. Fetter succinctly criticizes Clark’s failure
to explain interest on consumption goods, his assumption of a permanent
capital fund, and his assumption of
“synchronization” in production.
Cf. Böhm-Bawerk, Positive
Theory of Capital, pp. 299–322, 329–38.
The rate of interest, however,
will make a great deal of difference in so far as he is an owner and
seller of a durable good. Land is, of course, durable almost by
definition—in fact, generally permanent. So far, we have been
dealing only with the sale of factor services,
i.e., the “hire” or rent” of the factor,
and abstracting from the sale or valuation of durable factors,
which embody future services. Durable land, as we shall see, is
“capitalized,” i.e., the value of the factor as a
whole is the discounted sum of its future MVP’s, and there
the interest rate will make a significant difference. The price of
durable land, however, is irrelevant to the supply schedule of land services
in demand for present money.
Strictly, of course, the slope
would not be constant, since the return is in equal percentages,
not in equal absolute amounts. Slopes are treated as constant here,
however, for the sake of simplicity in presenting the analysis.
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